Entry Name: "HKUST-Qiao-GC"
VAST Challenge 2017
Grand Challenge
Team
Members:
Qiao
GU, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, qgu@connect.ust.hk PRIMARY
Hang
YIN, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, hyinac@connect.ust.hk
Lian
CHEN, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,
lchenbk@connect.ust.hk
Chengzhong
LIU, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, cliubf@connect.ust.hk
Haotian
LI, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, hlibg@connect.ust.hk
Xuanwu
YUE, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, xuanwu.yue@gmail.com
Huamin
QU, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, huamin@cse.ust.hk
Student
Team: YES
Tools
Used:
PreserVis, a HTML+CSS+JS system with Vue.js, d3.js, ECharts
library, developed by the student team for the challenge
Excel
Tableau
Approximately how many hours were spent working on
this submission in total?
40
May we post your submission in the Visual Analytics
Benchmark Repository after VAST Challenge 2017 is complete? YES
Video
Questions
1 Provide your best hypothesis with supporting
evidence of what is happening in the Lekagul Preserve that is affecting the
Rose-crested Blue Pipit. Your answer should include identification of who is
responsible for the impactful activities, what they are doing, where impactful
events are occurring, when and how often these occur, how these events are
taking place, and why they are happening. Please limit your response to 1000 words and
6 images.
As we have done in the first 3 mini challenges, it is believed there are mainly 4 reasons. The reasons will be further discussed below.
1.
Tourism
Figure:
Tourism Situation Overview)
Who: The tourists who visit camping areas of Preserve as day-trips or overnight camping.
What: Large amount of visit to the camping areas cause burden to the environment and the tourists may invade the habitats of the birds.
Where: Mainly at camping areas.
When/How often: Mainly in Summer and Autumn. Most vehicles that came in weekends. Although the number of people is not available in the challenge, the number of vehicles heading to camping areas is almost 10,000 from May 2015 to May 2016. And in the peak period, there are more than 300 vehicles in the Preserve for camping at the same time.
How: Such a large number of visitors will severely produce noises and litters which could influence Pipits’ normal lives.
Why: We suspect that the scenery and environment of the Preserve is very attractive and so many tourists are willing to visit and stay at this place.
Also, from the Newsletter, there is Annual Boonsong Lekagul Cleanup in Preserve (reported in the issue in June 2013), which is the proof of the burden produce by the trash of the tourists to the camping areas.
2.
Noise
of Transportation
Figure:
Speed Distribution of Different Type of Vehicles
Who: All vehicles passing through or staying at the Preserve.
What: As we can see from the figure, the speed of the all kinds of vehicles are distributed around the speed limit of the Preserve (25mph), but most of them are travelling at higher speed. The noise produced by cars at such speed could influence the lives of Pipits by affecting their communication, mating and rest.
Where: All road paths in the Preserve.
When/How often: The transportation happens across the whole year, but the May to October has more vehicle entries.
How: Driving at a high speed would lead to the consequence that the noise level was higher than the noise level and harmful to Pipits.
Why: We suspect that authority only imposed a loose inspection of over-speed for vehicles.
From the Newsletter, increased number of traffic accidents are reported in the issue in June, 2016. This may be a consequence of overspeed driving and increased traffic in the Preserve.
3.
Chemical
Discharge
Figure:
Overview for Chemical Discharge
Who: All four companies mentioned in Mini Challenge 2.
What: From the analysis in the Mini Challenge 2, we can see that every company is responsible for one or two pollutants detected near the Preserve.
Where: From the Industrial Park at the south of the nature preserve
When/How often: All dates in the period of the given data. Methylosmolene are detected mainly in the night.
How: There are 4 kinds of substances discharged by the factories in the preserve, Appluimonia, Chlorodinine, Methylosmolene, AGOC-3A. Among these four substances, the most harmful to birds should be Chlorodinine and Methylosmolene. And we notice that AGOC-3A is used as one environmental-friendly substitute of Methylosmolene.
Why: We suspect that companies discharge the pollutants to get more profits.
Methylosmolene and Kasios
This is a traditional kind of VOC, which could do harm to the vegetation. And if the vegetation become less, Pipit will lose its place to live and the number will become smaller. According to the newsletter on June 2013, to fulfill the new national standards, it should be replaced by AGOC-3A in the production of Kasios and Radiance on March 2013. However, in the data of MC2, we could find Methylosmolene were still discharged by Kasios in the nights of 2016. Then we noticed an interesting phenomenon, after AGOC-3A was put into use, Kasios’ earnings per share kept going down until December 2014.
For the events above, we make a hypothesis as following. In 2013, in order to fulfill the requirement of government, Kasios chose AGOC-3A to reduce the discharge of VOCs. However, possibly the cost of AGOC-3A was higher than Methylosmolene. Even though the company made much effort including introduce a new product line, it could not change the situation. As the result, the company had to start to use Methylosmolene again to raise its profit in 2014.
4.
Vegetation
Figure: NDVI Distribution of images in Mini Challenge 3
The change of the NDVI through the three years should be a result of the reasons listed in 1, 2 and 3. According to the result in Mini Challenge 3, the vegetation health got better from 2014 to 2015 but worse from 2015 to 2016 (in summer). This tendency is matched by the discharge pattern over the years mentioned in the hypothesis of the “3. Chemical Discharge”. So the vegetation may be influenced by the Methylosmolene. The change of the vegetation might reduce the space for Pipit, which led to the decrease of its quantity.
2
Provide a timeline that comprehensively describes the relevant
activities in Mistford, the Industrial Park, and the Preserve that helps
concisely describe the events identified in Question 1. Please limit your
response to 1000 words and 6 images.
Figure: Timeline and Event for Kasios Office
Furniture
Figure: Timeline for Radiance ColourTek and
Indogo Sol Boards.
Figure: Timeline for Radiance Roadrunner Fitness
Electronics
2013-2015 Roadrunner has scooped up popular fitness
apps and quietly built up one of the most impressive fitness portfolios.
2013.06
stricter emissions standards for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) took effect.
Kasios and Radiance were both able to retool their processes three months ahead
of schedule to eliminate the need to use Methylosmolene and other VOCs. During
this period, the release of Methylosmolene might be reduced.
2013.06
Annual Boonsong Lekagul Cleanup. After this activity, the rubbish in camping
area should be reduced and litters’ effect to birds should also be reduced.
2013.06 Kasios’s latest expansion and renovation plans
continue to move forward. Kasios was seeking innovators.
2013.12 Radiance created its original paint technology with 100 percent real metallic particles. This technology is developed after this company retool its process to reduce the VOCs’ usage, which means when producing such product, the amount of AOGC-3A might rose.
Beginning
of 2014 Kasios started its 3-year expansion plan. This might be the cause of
the decrease of its profit.
2014.01-2014.03 Roadrunner: traditional production process optimization during the 1st quarter by digitalizing production information and real.time machine status.
2014.03 got the first satellite photograph of the reserve
2014.06 Indigo Sol: Initiated discussions with Bruder Stitch of Austria on snowboard and skateboard covers to compliment the Indigo Sol product line.
(this triggered the rise of the IS’profit )
2014.06 Radiance: Came to an agreement with Mistford Early College program with an initial donation of $5000 to Mistford College for STEM education.
2014.04-2014.06 Kasios: Introduced its new line of executive office chairs, called Excaliburr, during the 2nd quarter of this year. Excaliburr chairs feature new lumbar support adjustments to support long hours behind the desk.
Almost
all companies expanded their production lines but the release of chemicals
might not rise since all these companies participated in The Company
Sustainability Champion (CSC) program. This is also proved by the picture of
2014_08_24 where the average value of NDVI of the vegetation area experienced
an improvement
2014.06 Roadrunner focused on traditional production process optimization during the 1st quarter by digitalizing production information and real-time machine status.
2014.10 Kasios recruit new employees
2014.12
The profit of Kasios fell to the bottom, and after this, their profit started
to rise back. It is highly possible they gave up to use low-harm AGOC-3A and
switched back to Methylosmolene
2014.12 Radiance split the stock and the profit fell dramatically until 2015.03
2015.03 Radiance’s profit start to rise back
2015.05 : Kasios Office Supply, a Mistford based furniture
manufacturer, announces the release of their new website
2015.06 the records of vehicles’ entrance started to be
collected.
2015.06 MIP Operation: provide you a reminder of how to respond if an instance or threat of workplace violence arises
2015.06
Roadrunner Fitness Electronics debuted a pair of smart running
shoes that can track steps and stride
(This may cause
the larger amount of chemical C,which harms birds )
2015.06 Radiance released a new series of metallic spray paint Metallic Blue Pipit and donated portion of sales to Pangera Ornithology Conservation Society. Since this company used the local bird's name to call its production, it’s highly possible that this company would like to use raw material which is not harmful to birds.(to get good reputation)
Figure: Weird Activity of 4 axles truck in
2015 and 2016.
2015.12 John Torch as a transportation worker for Kasios Office Furniture. “the hours are sometimes long and hard on the road. Sometimes you have to work some pretty odd hours”. From the travel records of mini1, it is easy to find during the night, 4 axels trucks entered from E3 and left to E3.
2015.12 Indigo Sol is garnering praise for its new board designs
developed specifically for a new generation of skating girls.
2016.04 started to get information of chemicals
From
2015.05 to 2016.05, lots of visitors came here to camp and a large number of
cars passed by. The litters produced by visitors and noises made by cars and
tourists may have effect on living of birds.
2016.06 Final designs are currently being reviewed for
an expansion of the Indigo Sol facilities
2016.06 Robert Steuhaven has been named to the Kasios
Board of Directors.
2016.12
RoadRunner released the Roadrunner Fit III. From the bar chart of Chlorodinine
release, it is noticeable that its release reached the maximum in December.
This may be attributed with the introduction of new production. And this
chemical can harm birds.
From 2014.12
to 2016.12 the profit of Kasios rose constantly. During the period of sensor
data collected, Methylosmolene is usually released on night.
3
How confident are you in your hypothesis? What factors impact your confidence
in your hypothesis? What additional information would help strengthen your
hypothesis? Please limit your
response to 500 words and 3 images.
We believe that
there is about 75% possibility that our hypothesis is correct. The reasons are
as following.
In our
hypothesis, there are mainly 4 aspects which lead to the decrease of the number
of Pipits. Among them, the aspects of cars and vegetation could be proved by
the data given in first 3 mini challenges without doubt. However, the aspect of
chemical discharge and tourists could not be fully proved due to lack of
information.
1.
Chemical Discharge
a.
The standard of chemical discharge is unclear.
We make the
guess that Kasios discharged too much Methylosmolene but actually the standard
of discharging VOCs is unavailable, which means that perhaps the quantity of
VOCs discharged by the company is acceptable and do not harm birds too much.
Furthermore, the side effect of chemical substances to Pipit still needs some
experiment to test for the given background does not tell the direct
relationship between these substances and the living of Pipits.
b.
The reason of decrease of Kasios’ earnings per share could be various.
According to
the newsletter, Kasios continuously recruited employees starting June 2013 and
started the Expansion plan at 2014. As the result, the earnings per share could
also decrease because of the increase of expenditure. Maybe they continuously
used Methylosmolene for a certain amount which was beyond the standard.
c.
The data of chemical discharge is only available for 3 months in 2016
2.
Tourists
a.
The actual number of tourists is unclear and the effect isn’t clear.
b.
The place of habitant of birds is unclear.
There is a
possibility that the locations of camping sites are not so close to the
habitants of birds so people’s behavior can not affect Pipits or the influence
could be neglected.
We believe that
we still need more information in the following aspects:
l The effect and standard of
different chemical substances
l The concrete accounts of
Kasios
l The effect of human’s
behavior
l The investigation of
tourists’ behavior at camping sites
l The locations of habitants
of Pipits.
4
What are your proposed next steps? Do you have a course of action to
correct the problems in the Lekagul Preserve and help the Rose-crested Blue
Pipit? Please limit your response to 500 words and 3
images.
In our opinions, there
are several steps to do next.
a. Collect
more data
The
reasons why we need more data is as following.
i.
The data provided in first 3 mini challenges
has a defect which is that the overlapping period of 3 types of data is too
short. As the result, it is relatively difficult to combine them together and
get a comprehensive result.
ii.
The data in MC3 could only reflects the
situation on a specific day and it could be affected by various reasons such as
weather. More data on different days could make the analysis more accurate.
b. Collect
related information
As the answers of Q2, due to some unclear
information, our hypothesis is not fully convincing. It is reasonable to
collect some information other than data sets. The information should be with
regards to the chemical substances, the tourists and the companies. Moreover,
maybe it would be helpful to learn more about Pipits’ lifestyle, habitants and
other information.
c. Do
further research
Combining the information and data, further
research should be done to see whether there will be some new findings.
As far as we think, there
are following ways to help change the situation. These methods could be
classified under 3 categories corresponding to the 3 main reasons which led to
the decrease of Pipits.
a. Tourists
i.
Control the quantity of tourists and set
strict rules for visitors.
ii.
Limit the range of camping sites and close the
sites which are close to Pipits’ habitants.
b. Cars
i.
Limit the number of cars which could drive in
the preserve, especially the number of cars with more than 3 axles.
ii.
Install more monitors for the speed of cars
inside the preserve and punish over-speed cars. Furthermore, the speed limit
could be set lower than 25mph.
iii.
Keep tourists’ private cars outside the
preserve and use bicycles or electric cars inside the preserve.
c. Chemical
discharge
i.
If possible, relocate all the factories at
somewhere far away from the preserve.
ii.
Set higher standard for discharge and enhance
the management and inspection of discharge.